Back in late September, Casino.org interviewed Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello on early season NFL wagering, with sportsbooks generally feeling jovial with all the upsets through Week 3.

Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations, called it a “weird” start to the NFL betting season, but he also did say things would eventually level out. That they have.

Lions Bad for the Book

In terms of play so far, NFL storylines have been led by the dominance of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-0), the Washington Commanders as underdog surprise (7-2), Ravens QB Lamar Jackson for MVP, the steady-as-she-goes Detroit Lions, leading both the NFC and the North Division (7-1), maybe the underperformance of the San Francisco 49ers (4-4).

Casino.org scanned the trader terrain for some feedback on how things have looked as the NFL betting behemoth enters Week 10, and here’s what we found out.

“We’ve seen continued betting interest on the NFL with 13% year-over-year growth at the midseason mark,” Christian Cipollini, BetMGM Trading Manager. “Our bettors love scoring, and ‘anytime touchdown scorer’ has been our most popular prop with Derrick Henry in the lead for the most bet player. The Lions continue to be our worst outcome running at a league-best 7-1 against the spread. Needless to say, we’re rooting hard against the Lions as we start the second half of the season.”

Bills-Jets Most Bet Game

Year-over-year increases (both U.S. and Canada wagering) for BetMGM has been led by a 31% increase in women betting on the NFL, and a 76% increase in first touchdown bets thanks to BetMGM’s Second Chance promotion. Most bet game was the Bills and Jets Monday nighter in Week 6 (a wild affair, marked by an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary TD at the half, eventually won by the Bills 23-20).

The week commencing 14th October matches we saw significant losses across all brands,” said Oliver Vickers, a UK-based trader with 888 Sport. “Wouldn’t be far off our biggest ever payouts and that was seen across the whole industry. One customer won $75k from a total points accumulator or parlay. Receiving yards is getting the most traction as a bet builder market outside the usual main lines. Canada is our highest turnover country for American football.”

Allen for MVP?

Over at PointsBet Canada, a spokesperson from their trader team said this: “The public so far has been dominant at picking winners straight up, most likely due to a higher number of favorites winning versus what we’ve seen in previous seasons. We’re seeing more interest in same game parlays this year. And Josh Allen for MVP has been the most popular future throughout the season.”

That Allen stat isn’t a surprise – the Bills’ quarterback has led the team to a dominant 7-2 start, plus he’s among the leaders with a 105.8 passer rating, just two interceptions, 17 TDs, and 2,001 yards passing.

“Nine weeks in, and the four most popular teams that winning punters have latched onto for their spread parlays are the improving Commanders, the all-firing Lions, the ever popular Mahomes-led Chiefs and arguably the most surprising team (through first five weeks anyway), the Vikings,” said Neil Gibson, a trader with BetVictor. “Combined they are 25-7 versus the spread and that has reflected in clients weekly wagers. Of course, there are underperforming popular teams too. Cowboys, Dolphins, Jets and Houston, despite leading their division, are combining at 10-23 versus the spread and have been good results.”

And this from a trader at FanDuel Canada:

We’re seeing great interest in the NFL season this year. At this midseason point, the five most popular players are Breece Hall, CeeDee Lamb, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Additionally, the most popular player in our catch a pass market is Travis Kelce and the 5 most popular players in our touchdown scorer market are Derrick Henry, CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara.”

Headlines so far

Other highlights from Gibson:

• Ante Post (futures betting) favourites have been very popular in Division parlays and going well are Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs and Lions.
• 49ers are combining a lot of ante post futures too, and their result in the NFC West will be pivotal for us and hold the key for a lot of firms.
• Despite a rather underwhelming start to the season, the Eagles have been the most popular team in the NFC Conference. I am thinking that punters are thinking that once they actually start to play how we know they can they will emerge as main dangers to the Lions and the banged-up 49ers. The Vikings were popular early too for the NFC whilst 5-0.
• In the AFC, it’s all about two teams, ever popular Chiefs & and all the early cash was for Rodgers and Jets. Rodgers was also well backed for the Comeback Player of the Year, alongside Sam Darnold at Minnesota when McCarthy went down.
• Chiefs not surprisingly are the most bet team for the Superbowl. Lions are second best, and Bengals and Packers were popular too.
  
• Kevin O’Connell is popular for Coach of the Year. Most bets were struck on Dan Campbell with the Lions.
• Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have been best bet/most popular for Regular Season MVP.
• Business has been brisk through nine weeks, where Week 6 was a highlight for punters with 12 of 13 favourites winning. Only Tennessee losing versus the Colts saved a bloodbath.

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